Still Enough Time to "Conquer the Crash?"

Still Enough Time to "Conquer the Crash?"
Why a New York Times Bestseller Remains Relevant Now
March 28, 2011

By Elliott Wave International

"If you were fortunate enough to have read the first edition of Robert Prechter's Conquer the Crash, your money was safe and sound as stocks, real estate, commodities and many bonds plummeted."
Conquer the Crash, 2nd edition, (quote from inside book sleeve)
The New York Times bestseller Conquer the Crash published in 2002: As the quote above suggests, Bob Prechter advised readers to avoid risky assets and embrace cash and cash equivalents.
But did the 2007-2009 declines represent all of the bear market? And is the "Great Recession" over?
Many financial commentators believe the answer to both questions is "yes." The latest Elliott Wave Theorist reports on attitudes toward the rally of the past two years:
"...sentiment measures today do not indicate caution, skepticism and disbelief but rather multi-year extremes in optimism among five sets of market players: individual investors, futures traders, options traders, newsletter advisors and mutual fund managers."
Regarding the economic outlook, the March Elliott Wave Financial Forecast notes a recent business story headline which reads, "Good Times Ahead." The story quotes a top banker saying, "Businesses have plenty of capital and are starting to expand again."
The same issue of the Financial Forecast also reminded subscribers that the fear of inflation remains widespread:
"When Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke touched on the 'politically volatile subject of inflation' in [recent] Congressional testimony, the blogosphere erupted with proclamations about runaway prices across the board. Here's one sample, 'There can be only one possible result. Inflation of everything we use is going to explode.'"
Yet Robert Prechter has another perspective on market optimism, a business climate "turnaround," and notions of runaway inflation. That is why he updated the second edition of Conquer the Crash to include 188 new pages.
These new pages include "updated lists of banks, insurers and Treasury-only money market funds in the U.S., top-rated for safety."
More than ever, Prechter emphasizes safety. In a word, it's the key to conquering a severe market downturn. Follow the advice about safety in CTC, 2nd edition, and you'll be better prepared for a deflationary depression. 
Elliott Wave International has put together a FREE, 8-lesson report based on Conquer the Crash, 2nd edition. This free, 42-page report can help you prepare for the future -- financially and economically! Why not read "8-Lesson: Conquer the Crash Collection"? It's FREE!
Become a member of Club EWI (membership is also free), and you'll have immediate access to "8 Lesson: Conquer the Crash Collection." Just follow this link and you're on your way to financial peace of mind.

Quantitative Easing: Why It Has NOT Brought Back Inflation

Quantitative Easing: Why It Has NOT Brought Back Inflation
EWI's new groundbreaking FREE eBook teaches you how to think and invest independently
March 25, 2011

By Elliott Wave International

Below is an excerpt from the newest free Club EWI investor education resource, The Independent Investor eBook 2011. Inside are some of the most eye-opening research findings by EWI's president Robert Prechter, as published in the recent issues of his monthly Elliott Wave Theorist.
Enjoy this short excerpt -- and for details on how to read this eBook in full, free, look below.

Club EWI's Free Independent Investor eBook 2011 (excerpt)
Chapter 1: Quantitative Easing Has Not Brought Back the Old Inflationary Trend
(From Prechter's January 2011 Elliott Wave Theorist)

While long terms rates are rising, Treasury bill rates are stuck near zero. How is it possible?

... During hyperinflation, rates typically rise to double digits per month. Inflationists find it difficult to reconcile the Fed’s massive balance sheet growth over three years beginning in August 2008 with short term rates at zero and long term rates only in the 2-5% range.

Deflationists (all ten of us) understand why investors are willing to hold government paper at such low returns: The total supply of debt is contracting. Most bonds won’t survive. The federal government’s bonds will survive the longest.

Figure 10 shows that the total supply of “money” plus debt (all of which is in fact debt) peaked in 2008. This decline in overall money and credit is the first on an annual basis since 1929-1933. It is a big deal.

... This graph explains why gold in 2010 was so much lonelier in making an all-time high than stocks, commodities and real estate were in 2006, when everything was making an all-time high simultaneously: The total money + credit supply is down and cannot support new highs in all markets at once.

The Fed’s QE programs are failing to re-ignite inflation. By mid-2011, the Fed will have monetized just over $2 trillion worth of debt since 2008 to bring the value of its total assets to about $3t. This does represent a huge amount of fiat money. But the overall debt load is $65 trillion. Thus, the Fed will have monetized only 5% of the total, meaning that 95% of the outstanding debt is still suffocating the economy like a giant pool of sludge. …The Fed’s degree of monetization in light of these debts is very small. 

 For more of Robert Prechter’s insights on the markets, including why QE2 was a major tactical error, why rising oil prices are not bearish for stock, and why earnings don’t drive stock prices, read the rest of this FREE 51-page Independent Investor eBook. Download your free eBook NOW.

EWI's FreeWeek of Commodity Forecast

Elliott Wave International has just announced the beginning of their popular commodity FreeWeek event, where non-subscribers can test-drive some of EWI's most popular premium services. 

Now through noon Wednesday, March 23 (Eastern Time), you'll get access to all of EWI's hottest daily, weekly and monthly opportunities in softs, meats and ags, plus all the charts, world-class analysis, video forecasts along with practical real-world trader lessons, tips, tricks and more!

As many of the commodity markets are reaching new highs, the timing of this FreeWeek couldn’t be better. See the opportunities that are unfolding in commodities through the eyes of an EWI subscriber before this rare event expires.

FreeWeek is one of EWI's most popular programs, and it's perfect for traders and investors who are curious about EWI's subscription services. Please don't hesitate to tell your friends about the exciting opportunity FreeWeek provides. 

Portfolio Prophet review - What is portfolio Prophet?

Portfolio Prophet ReviewPortfolio Prophet is full fledged ETF trading course. As you know diversification is very essential in trading. If you are just in forex, you must consider investing in another market like ETF or bonds or stocks.Portfolio Prophet course contains detailed strategy on ETF trading as well as alert software. Bill Poulus has done a very thorough job in creating this course. I

Forex — The Risks of Currency Trading

You might think that the Forex industry is all cut and dried, made up of successful businesses that can make you wealthy just like that. But the truth is something far different than what most people want to hear. The Forex industry is rife with people out to steal your money. That’s the simple truth. You need to be aware that these fraudulent people exist before you start investing your hard earned money. If you don’t, you may find that your money is here today and gone tomorrow.

One of the risks when it comes to the Forex industry is represented by fraudulent brokers who make promises they are unable to keep. Never make the mistake of judging a company based exclusively on its website, always be skeptical and search for information about the company in question on third party sources. Just like when it comes to pretty much anything else, judging a book by its cover is just plain wrong. Does this mean that their website shouldn’t be taken into consideration? Of course not, the appearance of their website is indeed a variable that needs to be kept in mind but it should not (under any circumstances) be the most important one.

Trading account hacking is another way you can get robbed. Hackers find ways to get your personal information and then steal the funds from your trading accounts. Always use secure passwords and keep your sensitive data completely off-limits. Hackers are all over the Internet and if you don’t keep your information private, they will uncover your details. They work long and hard to find ways of retrieving your personal information. There are steps you can take to make sure they don’t and at the end of the day, it’s all a matter of common sense.

Another way to lose your money in the Forex industry is by assuming that given the fact that you are taking calculated risks, losses are eliminated from the equation altogether. Nobody in the Forex industry is perfect and there are always risks involved. The best protection you can have is doing business with only the most successful brokers out there and a good Forex broker will never try to convince you that the Forex industry is just one huge «get rich quick» once in a lifetime opportunity. Instead, a responsible broker should be honest with you about the risky nature of trading in general because that way, you’re establishing a solid foundation upon which the two parties can build.

Here’s another way it goes down. When using trading software, sometimes there can be software errors. The software can malfunction and leave your trade at a loss no matter what you do. Instead of using software, decide to make your important trades directly if necessary. This will ensure that you won’t deal with mistakes that the software systems are generally prone to.

Trading directly may take a little more time and involvement but it is an almost foolproof way of making your trades. When using software, you are taking a big risk. What if the industry changes and the rules aren’t what they used to be? Where does that leave you and your software platform? It leaves you in dire straits, that’s where!

There is a reason why the great majority of people who try Forex on for size fail. Inexperience! They have no idea what to do, will follow the leader and generally receive really bad advice as to how to go about their trading habits. You see, trading directly is by far the best way to go about learning the ropes when it comes to the Forex industry. You get to use strategies that you know work and can change your systems on the fly. What works today isn’t guaranteed to work tomorrow. The best thing you can do for yourself is to change with the markets and develop new strategies through the help of a professional. People experienced in Forex can really help you get a foot hold and after you know how to change with the markets, it should be all smooth sailing from there. Good luck!

Big Advantage of Trading with the Wave Principle

Big Advantages of Trading with the Wave Principle
Plus: Discover Where to Place "Protective Stops"
March 7, 2011

By Elliott Wave International

What advantages does the Wave Principle offer to traders?
Here's one of the big advantages of using the Wave Principle when trading: you can increase your understanding of how current price action relates to the market's larger trend.
Other tools fall short in this regard. Several trend-following indicators such as oscillators and sentiment measures have their strong points, yet they generally fail to reveal the maturity of a trend. Moreover, these technical approaches to trading are not as useful in establishing price targets as the Wave Principle.
Here's another big advantage of using the Wave Principle in your trading, which comes directly from the free eBook "How the Wave Principle Can Improve Your Trading" -
"Technical studies can pick out many trading opportunities, but the Wave Principle helps traders discern which ones have the highest probability of being successful."
Indeed, this valuable free eBook shows you how to identify and exploit the market's price pattern, as shown in the Elliott wave structure below:
The Wave Principle also helps you to identify price levels where you may want to place protective stops.
"...although the Wave Principle is highly regarded as an analytical tool, many traders abandon it when they trade in real-time -- mainly because they don't think it provides the defined rules and guidelines of a typical trading system.
But not so fast -- although the Wave Principle isn't a trading "system," its built-in rules do show you where to place protective stops in real-time trading."
"How the Wave Principle Can Improve Your Trading"
Before you attempt to identify price levels for protective or trailing stops, you should first become familiar with these three rules of the Wave Principle:
  • Wave 2 can never retrace more than 100 percent of wave 1
  • Wave 4 may never end in the price territory of wave 1
  • Wave 3 may never be the shortest impulse wave of waves 1, 3, and 5 
The details and specific instructions for placing protective and trailing stops are in the BONUS section of the free eBook, "How the Wave Principle Can Improve Your Trading."
Here's what you'll learn:
  • How the Wave Principle provides you with price targets
  • How it gives you specific "points of ruin": At what point does a trade fail?
  • What specific trading opportunities the Wave Principle offers you
  • How to use the Wave Principle to set protective stops
Keep reading this free lesson now.
Here are a few comments from analysis David Rosenberg.  Take this into consideration when March numbers are released.

"Here is what I think is important: because of the winter storms, we really have to average out the past two months. So the January-February average for payrolls is +128k. Allowing for a similar reading in March that we received in February would generate an average increase for the first quarter of around 150k. That is little changed from what employment gains averaged on a monthly basis in the fourth quarter.

So while we are seeing positive job growth, it is not accelerating even though we are coming off the most intense impact of the fiscal and monetary easing that was unveiled late last year. In other words, we are disappointed with what is still a lackluster trend in net job creation, particularly in view of the peak stimulus we are currently experiencing.

What if Q1 is the peak for job growth? If you remember, we ended up with sub-3% GDP growth in the fourth quarter, which is about half of what we should be seeing at this stage of the cycle. And if we are generating jobs at a similar rate in the current quarter, barring a re-acceleration in productivity, growth again will be below 3% at a time when the consensus is closer to 3.5%. But more to the point — what if this represents the peak for the year? Because if there is one thing we do know, it is that this quarter contains all the incremental policy easing impact on the macro data.

What was particularly discouraging was the fact that both the wage number and the workweek were flat. Nominal wages, in fact, have been stagnant in three of the past four months. Weekly average earnings have also been flat or negative in three of the past four months. How on earth can these statistics possibly be viewed as bullish for the economy? The year-over-year-trend in average weekly earnings in the past three months has softened from 2.6% to 2.5% to 2.3% today. At the same time, it is probably reasonable to assume that surging food and fuel costs will bring headline inflation to, and possibly through, 3% in coming months. In other words, the growing risk of falling personal income in real terms, even with the positive growth in payrolls, is a glaring yellow light as far as the consumer spending outlook is concerned.

Yes, the unemployment rate dipped again to a 22-month low of 8.9% from 9.0% in January and the nearby high of 9.8% in November. This reflected a 250k rise in Household employment — the third increase in a row — and a flat participation rate. A couple of behind-the-scene facts: from October to February, an epic 700k people have left the work force. If you actually adjust for the fact that the labour force participation rate has plunged this cycle to a 27-year low the unemployment rate would be sitting at 12% today. Moreover the employment-to-population ratio — the so-called “employment rate” — stagnated in February at 58.4% and is actually lower now than it was last fall when “double dip” was the flavour du jour.

All that matters in these employment reports is what the jobs environment means for income, because workers generally spend in the real economy. With credit harder to come by, and with fiscal policy soon to become more focused on austerity, it is the income that the labour delivers that will prove to be the critical determinant of the economic outlook. So while the “spin” may be over near-200k headline payroll gains, another dip in the headline unemployment rate, the organic income backdrop can really only be described as tentative, at best, especially in real terms as gasoline prices make their way to $4 a gallon by the time Memorial Day rolls around."

Happy Trading!!

Below is an excellent article from my friends at Elliott Wave International.  Although it specifically speaks to the stock market we can draw consistencies with the other markets.  And what about global macro views, Elliott wave and Gann forecasting?  News is the fuel but technicals are the rudder providing direction.  Enjoy!!

Breaking News Bulletin: News Is NOT the Main Driver of Stock Market Trends
A FREE myth-busting report from Club EWI reveals the real force behind long-term trend in financial markets
March 2, 2011

By Elliott Wave International

Breaking News Bulletin: News Is NOT the Main Driver of Stock Market Trends
A FREE myth-busting report from Club EWI reveals the real force behind long-term trend in financial markets
Conventional economic wisdom is founded on one core concept: namely, that events that exist outside the market (part of "market fundamentals") trigger trend changes in the financial markets.
Because of this belief, you have the mainstream experts of finance watching everything from weather patterns to crop conditions, political exploits to the subtlest changes in punctuation in the Fed's minutes -- all in the hopes of anticipating the next big move in commodities, stocks, gold, the dollar, etc. In a nutshell, "positive" news and events cause a rise in prices, while "negative" news pushes prices down.
In reality, however, things are not as clear-cut. Markets regularly "ignore" the news, shrug it off -- and move in the opposite direction of their "fundamental" cues. OR, worse waver in two different directions after the same event.
Take, for instance, the recent slew of news items following Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's March 1 testimony before the Senate Banking Committee:
  • "US Stocks Advance Ahead of Bernanke's Testimony" (International Business Times)
  • VERSUS -- "US Stocks Turn Lower As Bernanke Testifies To Congress" (NASDAQ)
  • VERSUS -- "US Stocks Rise With Bernanke In Focus" (MarketWatch)
  • VERSUS -- "Stocks Decline As Bernanke Comments Fall Flat." (Wall Street Journal)
What often ends up happening is this: Because the original event fails to predict the movement in stocks, commentators then sift through the day's news feed in search of a different "trigger" -- one that fits price action AFTER the fact.
The fallacy of a news-driven market is the first misconception exposed in Elliott Wave International's Club EWI free resource "The Independent Investor" eBook. Here's a short preview of this eye-opening report.
Chapter 1 opens with the question "What Really Moves the Market?" You then get the answer via riveting excerpts and charts from EWI president Bob Prechter's monthly Elliott Wave Theorist publications, such as this one below:
"Suppose the devil were to offer you historic news days in advance. He doesn't even ask you for your soul in exchange. He explains, 'What's more, you can hold a position for as little as a single trading day after the event or as long as you like.' It sounds foolproof, so you accept. His first offer: 'The President will be assassinated tomorrow.' You can't believe it. You and only you know what's going to happen. The devil transports you back to November 22, 1963. You short the market. Do you make money?
DJIA Daily 1962-1964
The first arrow in Figure 6 shows the timing of the assassination. The market initially fell, but by the close of the next trading day, it was above where it was at the moment of the event. You can't cover your short sales until the following day's opening because the devil said you could hold as briefly as one trading day after the event, but no less. You lose money."

Independent Investor eBook further exposes 10 other commonly held economic beliefs for what they truly are: Wall Street myths disguised as reality. Here's what else you'll learn: 
  • The Problem With “Efficient Market Hypothesis”
  • How To Invest During a Long-Term Bear Market
  • What’s The Best Investment During Recessions: Gold, Stocks or T-Notes?
  • Why "Buy and Hold" Doesn’t Work Now
  • How To Be One of the Few the Government Hasn’t Fooled
  • How Gold, Silver and T-Bonds Will Behave in a Bear Market
Keep reading this 118-page Independent Investor eBook now, free -- all you need is a free Club EWI profile.
This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Breaking News Bulletin: News Is NOT the Main Driver of Stock Market Trends. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

EURUSD Attacks Key Confluence Zone

The EUR/USD is mounting another assault on the critical Fibonacci confluence zone of 1.3860 -1.4000 on the daily. A break above this level could signal a move to the 1.4276 level. The 1.4276 level represents the convergence of a significant confluence zone on both the monthly and weekly as well as the upper limits of a bearish channel on the monthly.

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