As I Get Better

I probably shouldn't be trading during this period. I know there is thin volume, that moves may not reflect wider market sentiment, and whatever else I should know. However, I simply like to trade. Besides, now that I'm getting better, it's a hobby that can generate an income.One thing I've noticed though is that I'm still too impatient. Basically, my worst batting average will coincide with

Extraction Strategies

Extraction strategies? What the heck is that?Underwater PsychologyIf you are like anyone else you've found yourself in a trade that is going against you from time to time. You start to imagine reasons why the price could continue to move against you.For example, this morning I was underwater in a position due to the spike in AUDJPY. The price of oil was rising due to the conflict in Gaza,

Christmas Week Trading Results

Between the thin trading volume and the holidays there wasn't a lot of opportunity in the Forex markets this week.In any case, I did manage to eek out a 7.5% gain in net asset value.This has me thinking. If I was to build up an account balance of approximately $20,000 and maintain gains of 5% or more per week then I'd probably be able to think about quitting my day job.This task seems
I'm not sure how significant technical events will be with thin holiday trading. However, the AUDJPY tested the long term resistance mentioned in my previous post.As I write, this pair has been slipping down after what appeared to be a sustained break for several hours (at least according to my chart... over such a large period of time small inaccuracies could lead to misinterpretation).Which

Post Holiday AUDJPY Strategy

Though trading is probably going to be thin until we get into January I think it's a good time to consider trading strategy.In the short term I expect the following:A test of the long term resistance line showing up on the daily charts from around October 14th until now. This could take place around 62.10 to 62.20 depending on how long it is before the test happens.I'm not sure it will happen,
Once again, upon waking in the very early hours, I was able to catch an upward movement in the AUDJPY.Though the price did come back again around 5:00am and 6:00am, I certainly wouldn't have been awake to catch those moves.So, strange as it is, I unloaded my positions to the tune of a 1% gain in NAV (Net Asset Value) and went back to sleep all squared away.Happy trading! Zzzzz.
Having trouble log in into blogger account lately. Forex is not going anyway at the moment. Up and down it is still at the same level.

Currently I am watching for a certain level in GbpUsd. 1.4650 is the level I am waiting for. Believe it or not, I have not traded this week. Today GU nearly hit my stop order. I am still waiting

A Pop And A Drop

In my last post, where I gave an audible AUDJPY signal, I suggested that we were coming up to a decision point for the AUDJPY.My take was that we'd see a drop.It took some patience, but after carefully accumulating a few positions on the way up I was rewarded with a nice quick profitable drop. While I would have done better playing for the pop and keeping an eye out for signs of a drop, I really
Okay, this isn't really a signal, but what the heck. It looks like the AUDJPY is positioned to head downwards on the 3hr, 1hr, 15min and 5min charts.Yes, yes, I know. It doesn't actually mean it's going to do that. However, this does mean it's a good time to do your own technical analysis and see whether you see a reversal or a breakout.Either will do.

Adjusting My Risk

Though I'm very happy to report great earnings progress it also makes me nervous. Not only are my these recent gains a hard act to follow but now I need to adjust the size of my trades.Enter the arena of trading psychology.Trading larger amounts let's you see losses and gains adding up faster. It's harder to resist the emotional forces generated.So far this week I've been a bit hesitant and

Recent Trading Results

First, some recent results:Week ending 28-Nov: +23% NAVWeek ending 05-Dec: +08% NAVWeek ending 12-Dec: +10% NAVWeek ending 19-Dec: +45% NAVThis is silly! I'm going to outline some of the events that transpired to help this happen.During the week ending 05-Dec I acquired some AUDJPY positions in the 58.xx price range. I had a nice trend line indicating that this was likely to be a support point

Yen Cross Spike

Guess who was lucky enough to wake up at 4:00am this morning?At around 4:20 there was a massive spike in my AUD/JPY holdings. I'd accumulated some positions on the way up from 58.xx and unloaded them as it made a 63.xx rocket launch. Checking out my news sources it seems that various stops were triggered. Given that market conditions were thin the price went nuts.Anyway, though my open trades

Where To Go From Here

While I'm getting fairly comfortable with my ability to trade I'm not sure what to do with my blog.To make my blog really useful to others I'd have to spend a fair amount of time on it. Perhaps post charts and so forth with explanatory text. Heck, I have trouble finding time to blog at all given the duties of my full time job, some hobbies, family responsibilities and finally watching the

4 Guidelines for Forex Trading I Follow

Forex trading may become a much easier activity if you follow your own or someone else’s well-formulated guidelines. I’ve based my guidelines on my past Forex trading experience and knowledge gained listening to some of the best stock and Forex traders. What’s important is that the guidelines are not the laws and rules — they are not the only way to success, they just help the traders in their endeavor. Here’s the list of my four Forex trading guidelines:
  • Risk only 3% of the total trading capital with each trade. Generally it’s quite hard to come up with the comfortable risk percentage value for your trades if you want to keep a good money management and still let your funds grow at a nice rate. For me 3% is the optimal level — safe enough to save and high enough to gain.
  • Reward-to-risk ratio should be no lower than 1. Many currency traders prefer trading with the ratio not less than 2 or even higher. That’s a problem of risk/gain balance too. For me the opportunities with the ratio above 2 are very rare — maybe, because I prefer high accuracy trades. If your accuracy rate is far from 90% than sticking to reward-to-risk ratio of 2 would probably be a better decision.
  • Don’t leave the positions open through the weekend. The weekly opening gap can be a killer. Don’t underestimate it. As a swing trader, I prefer to open my positions in the beginning of the week and I always close them before trading ends on Friday. The gap in the price rates that usually occurs after a weekend can make your stop-loss trigger far from the levels you planned it to.
  • Wait before opening a new order after you’ve just traded. If you jump into another position right after you closed or opened a previous order is a straight road to overtrading and an empty balance. I always wait some time analyzing opportunities and resting from the Forex market before setting up my next order. Maybe, for the extreme scalpers this isn’t a best decision, but for the absolute majority of the medium-term Forex traders it is.
I was doing some graphic editing these days. Just as a hobby. It seems that everytime I try to render in Photoshop, my pc will shutdown. It just switch off the power and everything is blank.

So I decided to investigate on the cause of the shutdown. After monitoring the temperature while doing some Photoshop rendering. My CPU temperature climbed up to 94C and my north bridge chipset is at 124C and the system will shutdown.

Imagine the component of your PC is reaching 124C. That is higher than point of boiling for water. It is scary sometimes thinking that the pc is under my table, just beside my leg and it is burning hot. Hopefully nothing will ever explode and take my leg with it. Im typing this with one leg on the chair just in case.

If you are using a pc, there is nothing to worry about. Under normal usage, the cpu is always below 40C. Mine is sleeping at 33C now. Its just that when you do some heavy calculation stuff that everything turns up red hot. So you can just surf the net, play some 3d games, watch dvd etc. Those normal usage do not require heavy calculation and your PC is half awake. Btw, 3d games is not a heavy usage. My pc can run Quake Wars with everything turned to max for hours. No problem there.

I will not use photoshop again on this pc. This is my power pc and it is running hot. I am using my 2nd pc to render all my photoshop graphic. Its been an hour and my 2nd pc still not finish rendering a 14Mega Pixel picture. This pc however can do it in 10 minutes. Talk about difference in power.

Next I am going to buy an Apple Mac for all my rendering needs. So my house will be full of computers. Btw I have 3 desktop and a laptop now working in the house. So if I add another Mac, I can turn my house into a cyber cafe.

As for Forex, its going up but at the moment the direction is down. So be on the look out for a sell but keep in mind, the long term trade is a buy. Forex is not a straight road and I feel like Yoda speaking right now. How can I say sell but at the time look for buy. You know it when its there. I assure you.

THESE ARE HARD TIMES.



The Market is now moving with unexpected turns. These are hard times. News traders have long gone. These kind of market isnt moving with the news. The only ones left are fundamental long term traders and technical traders. These are the traders who will survive in these kind of situation.

I have heard of quiet a numbers of blown accounts now. For these people dont feel bad. The world is not againts you. Just have to wait for a better time to enter the market.

I for myself have taken the long term trades only. Short term trades is out of the question now. Those sharp and sudden turns will kill any short term traders. It took me a while to realize, fortunately my loss is small and I manage to change tactics in a short period of time. At the moment I only take long position because that is what the daily chart is saying. All managed accounts is currently on hold. No more live trades for managed accounts. The risk is not very healthy right now.

These are hard times. The market is ever changing but at the moment the changes is greater than before. You need to be on your feet and react accordingly to changes of the market. Survive this and you will survive a long time in the market.

Forex Income Engine Bonus and Review

Forex Income Engine - Lot of you are asking me details of the bonus package that I mentioned about in my previous post.Well, I have put up a video that covers the details of these bonuses. You can check out the video at by Clicking here -Forex Income Engine BonusSome of these bonuses are available only in fixed quantities. A lot of people have already taken advantage of this offer. I am sorry

Catching A Bottom?

I don't know if it will really be the bottom, but I've managed to sink a decent amount of long AUDJPY around the 58.00 mark. There was a long term trend support line right around that point and I went with it.There are two separate positions at that point. Both of them have a protective stop loss slightly above their purchase price.Thought I've been having fun picking off a few pips here and

Ranging Market



In long term, this is a ranging market. You can see it from 4H. In medium term, this is a turning market. It is in a process of going for a long trade. That is the direction but I do not know if the trend will hold the direction.

Last week I manage to profit but only by a little. I lost a lot on Friday but manage to cover the losses and gain a little profit in the last minute. Have to stay up till 4am just to cover the losses.

Its a hard life becoming a trader. Is this the life you wanted? Sometimes I wonder that myself.

Trading Results: AUDJPY

For the week ending Fri 05-Dec-2008 I managed scrape out an 8% increase in net asset value.This week was more challenging, for me, than last week. I seem biased to seek opportunities with gains on the up side. So, on a week with sideways trading and periods of downward drift things slowed down.However, as always, watching my own trades brings insights that might be useful to other traders.For

RANGING PERIOD

Its ranging period again and its driving me nuts. My SL for EU got hit after 3 days. Got a few chance of closing it in profit but I refuse. Talk about being greedy now I am down by 50 pips.

This time around, big move belongs to GBP pairs. Steady move belongs to AUD pairs. Take your pick. You want big and risky, or small but safer. Safe here refer to your insurance in forex called Stop Loss.

At the moment GBP pairs has hit a brick wall on its way up. Most probably it wont break it or drop down again. Either way, a drop down again is unavoidable. That is where i plan to take my entry. Long position is looking good now but only after one more correction.

A UNIQUE CONDITION

At the time of writing EU is in a unique condition. 30M = 4H = D1. They are all pointing up but a bit heavy on the downside. This type of condition is very dangerous. It is all based on market sentiment.

At the moment the market is still trying to push EU down but EU has aligned itself for a shoot up. Just be carefull where you are standing when the big dogs enter the arena.

Forex Income Engine Review and Bonus

Forex Income Engine is a trading course from Bill and Greg. I had a chance to look at their course and let me tell you it amazing. It covers all the important aspects of forex trading such as Fundamentals as well as a trading stratey which is heavily accurate.It also covers in depth about the important topic of Money management. I m a big supporter of money management.This course is very
Sorry for the long period of no update on this blog. It seems that internet connection is really bad. At the office I am using Streamyx. Connection is crappy as usual. At home I am using Celcom 3G. Its better but its slow. Maybe my home is not well covered by the 3G network.

As for forex, EurUsd, GbpUsd, AudUsd, EurJpy and GbpJpy is heading up now but not to worry, there is still time. On the long term only EurUsd looks good for a long trade. I am currently holding long EurUsd @ 1.2640 with a stop loss of 50 pip. This is a long term trade, hopefully the move upwards will take a long time and lots of pips on the way.

As for the other pairs, it is heading up but its not an uptrend yet. They will be entering the ranging period now. So there will be plenty of chances for entry. If all these pairs maintained their direction we will see a change in trend in the longer term trades.

I will list key levels for guidelines. These key levels are good for both sell and buy position. Treat them as guidelines for entry in either direction.

EurUsd : 1.2670
GbpUsd : 1.5050
AudUsd : 1.6450
EurJpy : 119.20
GbpJpy : 141.50

These key levels are always changing. Since most of these pairs are entering the ranging zone so you can use these key level for this whole week. As for me I will be looking for a long trade from these levels that is if the current direction stays.

Good things are simple things. If you have a system, make sure it is simple. With simple indication you can make clear decision.

Forex: Tools of Trade

Although, the success in the Forex trading is largely associated with the trading strategies and systems that can be usually bought for money, those are not the real tools of the Forex trader. They can only be considered as the «shortcuts to the riches». Every professional should employ his own tools of trade and the Forex traders should have them too. Independent on the professionalism level of the trader, these tools help to analyze the markets and to calculate all the necessary numbers for money management and position taking:

MetaTrader 4 platform — perhaps the most important of the tools, a successful Forex trader should have. Even if you don’t trade with MetaTrader broker you should still download this free platform and use it for charts and technical analysis. With MetaTrader you can browse charts and the past history of almost all currency pairs, you can apply dozens of standard indicators and use the custom user-tailored indicators, you can back-test strategies using their strategy tester and forward-test your systems and expert advisors on the free demo servers. MetaTrader is your number one tool if you want to go beyond the beginner’s level in Forex.

Risk and reward calculator — a helpful tool if you prefer to know your reward-to-risk ratio before opening a real money position and manage your risks correctly. This risk-to-reward calculator will only for the chart patterns with the distinctive local peak and bottom. It’s based on the Fibonacci retracements.

Pip value calculator — it’s not a trivial task to calculate the value of a pip if you trade exotic currency pairs and/or have your trading account in some exotic currency. Understanding the value of the pip is important to accurately calculate your profits and losses. The on-line pip value calculator tool will help you to determine the pip value with the minimum efforts from your side.

Pivot points calculator — this tool will be useful to you only if you prefer to trade using technical pivot levels. There are many types of pivot calculators available — floor pivots, Tom Demark’s pivots, Camarilla pivots, Woodie’s pivots, etc. I suggest you using the on-line pivot point calculator, which combines the calculation of all the possible pivot point types.

Fibonacci calculator — if you trade via the MetaTrader platform you don’t need a separate Fibonacci calculator because you can use the standard indicator to build Fibonacci retracement levels. But if you use some web-based or some other inferior platform, you’ll enjoy calculating the Fibo levels with the on-line Fibonacci calculator.

AUD/JPY Trading Week

Well, the last couple days weren't as good as the first portion of the week, but they were still positive. I'm not complaining!Thursday and Friday were positive by 0.4% and 1.1% respectively. So, for the week, that gave me a NAV gain of 23.2% in total.If you've been following along you know that I only have a tiny total account size. However, the current plan, now that I seem to be able to

AUD/JPY Trading Review

Guess what. Some of the books that I bought have had an impact on my trading. I know, I hear the phrase "No shit, Sherlock" echoing out there. However, so many of the Internet generation want everything to be fast, easy and online that I just have to stress the value of more formal information.I bet you'd also be surprised to hear how many traders are starting out in their teenage years. It's
At the moment, majoriti of pairs are struggling to break the trend. From my analysis, only EurJpy and AudJpy have broken the trend. The rest will be in ranging mode until the trend is broken.

AudJpy @ 61.70
EurJpy @ 123.80

Those are entry point for short. Those are guideline only. You should be looking for better entry unless you have the guts for -ve pips

The rest of the pairs are ranging at the moment until the trendline broken. Do enter at will but no long term trade. Scalping mode from now on until a new trend is born.

Good luck

STOP LOSS HUNTING. THE MARKET IS CRUEL

Sometimes it happen but this is one rare ocassion and I am really stunned. I was holding a long position on GJ. I am in profit of about 100 pip with a stop loss of 50 pip from my entry point. Guess what. The market turned down 150 pip in one move, hit my stop loss and now its flying.

This has nothing to do with the broker, it is just the market is cruel. No matter who, you will get hit sooner or later. In order to hit me, the market has to move 150 pip againts the trend. What an honour I must say. 150 pip is much more than most people TP.

Enough said, all pairs should have a steady climb from now on. If you are holding long at the moment, make it long term.

MY HOBBY



Spent sometime at the beach yesterday. Taking a few pictures here and there. I have cropped the pictures into a widescreen wallpaper. Maybe some of you may like it. Its not a professional job but for me its ok.

ITS FRIDAY EVERYONE. GET LOST

Its Friday and time to get lost. If any of you still holding long position from this morning, its time to close it and get lost. Go get yourself lost in a pub, disco or something.

Im going off now. See you next week.

Btw, 500 pip move by GJ is unbelieveable but its Friday, anything goes on friday

FOREX TEMPLATE FOR GRAB

I am thinking of uploading my system to the internet so that it will be available for everyone. It will only be the basic system. The rest you have to figure out yourself.

Can anyone tell me where is the best place to upload and share files. I intend to upload a MT4 template and a text document explaining how it works.

Suggestion anyone??
As I said before, Friday is not a good day to trade but what if you have a signal to reverse everthing on Friday morning. Will you take it?

AUDUSD did drop down an enormous amount. I hope some of you profit from it as I posted earlier asking you to find a place to short as good as humanly possible. Now its changing direction. Unfortunately it happen on friday morning. As we all know, Friday is for those short term trader to take their profit. Money will flow out of the market leaving it with a very low trading volume. Anything can happen on Friday.

Trade on your own risk

Forex For The Small Speculator

Today was a banner day for me... trading the AUD/JPY with a return of more than 10% NAV. The market simply walked up and down my trend lines bringing me profits with every pass. How come this doesn't happen more often?Anyway, as a small time speculator I thought I'd outline some issues that we face compared to some of the larger traders:We trade in very small lot sizesTo make any meaningful

Getting A Forex Education - Forex Books

How many of us in the Forex market simply jumped in the market and started trading? I know that was my path. I tossed a few dollars in an account and figured losing it would be a paid lesson in how the markets work.I can't say that this hasn't been a valuable path. I've learned some good lessons along the way:it's important to let go of losses early so you have enough capital to sink your

FRIDAY IS NOT A GOOD DAY TO TRADE

Personally after almost 3 years of trading, I found that friday is not a good day to trade. This is true especially at night. So adviceable not to trade late during NY time.

Yesterday was a mixed bag. I hope some of you have closed the post when in profit as the market swings in both direction.

One of my students followed my trade. That is his post. For a gain of 155 pip live trading. Who can complaint

LONG TERM TRADE

Last nite jump was expected but GBPUSD never made it big. Only EURUSD and AUDUSD manage to jump big enough. EURUSD was screaming long from early morning yesterday while AUDUSD make the last minute move.

From a long term perspective. AUDUSD is in a good position for a short position. This is a long term strategy and may require you to have high tolerence toward -ve pips.

So the signal is to short AUDUSD and AUDJPY at the best position as humanly possible. This trade may run up to weeks if not months. So prepare your account for long term holding of post.

Good luck

POSSIBLE REVERSE BY GBPUSD

Looking at the charts this morning, I have a very strong feeling that GBPUSD will make a reverse soon. The move will be significant enough for a reverse trade. I have closed all my short post last night. Dont get me wrong, all these pairs are still on a downtrend but the correction is going to be huge.

Only time will tell. Good luck

I test Zulutrade as a signal provider. So far so good but I must say 1 thing. FXCM is no good. Spread is extra wide. Carry trade pays so little but get charged so much. Its a losing situation.

A NEW TOY IN THE HOUSE



Busy with a new toy. Sony a350. 14.2 Megapixel Digital SLR. Much better than my old Konica Minolta 7MP. Btw all short post is closed now. Market is going to be crazy for a while.

Double Impact of the Interest Rates on Forex

The interest rates, set by the world’s central banks, are widely used in the Forex trading. Their changes are monitored by the traders and investors because the interest rates determine the fundamental value of the currencies. It’s important for every Forex trader to understand the impact of the interest rates on the currencies he trades on. It’s easy to find the interest rate table to know their latest values, but how to interpret them?

In general, the higher the interest rate associated with the currency is, the better it’s for that currency. Higher interest rates attract investors, because they offer a higher yield. Forex traders prefer buying high-interest currencies versus the low-interest ones to gain the difference yield (such trading technique is called carry trade).

On the other hand, the lower interest rates are usually more popular among the traders when the global volatility rises and the world’s financial system experiences problems. The current financial crisis shows that the currencies with the lower yield are the favorites, because they are less risky than he high-yielding ones.

So what to do and how to react on the interest rates? The volatility index (VIX) is a good tool to measure the global interest rates preference. If it’s below the «normal» level of 30%, the high interest rates act as the attractors and the currencies that have high yield grow. If the index jumps up above that level, the traders prefer to move into the less risky assets and the low interest rate currencies gain.

MARKET REVIEW MON, 10 NOV. WEEK 46

My position late friday ended up in break even. It seems the market has turned over the weekend. This is a rare situation but sometimes it happens. In forex everything is possible.

Monday morning. The currency that is most volatile is GBP, EUR and CAD. I will not talk on CAD since I dont trade it. For GBP and EUR, it has grown in strength. Market has turned and the trade is now to long GBP and EUR pairs.

I would be looking for opportunity to long GBPJPY and EURJPY. These are the pairs that shown significant trend turn that long position from now on will have a higher chance of profit.

At the moment all GBP and EUR pairs are making a correction. If support level holds, take your long entry on next low.

Good luck
This is one thing that I hate most. A lot of people asking for my trading system. I know what they are going to do with it. They will take the hard work of many years, code it into an expert advisor and let it run on automatic trade.

For those of you who already has a succesfull system, you may share similliar view. Unfortunately for those who are still looking for a profitable way to trade, this is one of their easiest option. I dont blame them, creating a profitable system is not an easy task. It takes years to develop and test a system with no guarantee of success.

For those of you still looking for a way to be profitable in forex, there are system available on the internet. One of them is Zulutrade. Zulutrade is a place where signal providers (like me) test out their trade system with thousands of traders. It like a competition for traders. Good news is people can open an account and pick which signal providers they want to auto trade their account. Best thing is, its free. Yes, its free. You dont have to pay 30% of your profit to your account manager.

I personally never have used their system but am trying to register as a signal provider. Those of you can try it out if you want. All you have to do is open an account with them. Fund the account and pick which signal providers you want. Dont take my word for it. You have to go to Zulutrade and investigate yourself. Remember its your money.

WHAT HAPPENED TO TRADERS I KNOW?

When I started to venture into the world of forex, there are a few local traders that I knew. They are either seasoned or newbie like me back then but now it seems that most of them are gone. They are no longer in the land of forex and they are doing something else.

It seems the saying is true. Most people will not survive the 1st 6 months in forex. Those who survive the 1st 6 months will have a tough 2 years. Some people lasted longer but they no longer trade. They have become and IB living on commission. One person whom I know doing that is henrycarol. Before he was an IB for Northfinance, now he is an IB for a different broker. Personally I do not think he trade anymore. This is because the commission is too small compared to profit in forex. If you cannot profit, then your option is taking commission on volume traded by others.

I am heading to my 3rd year in forex. I survived this long by controlling my loss. You cannot win all the time in forex but make sure when you lose, you loss is small. When you win, make sure its big. There will come a time when you have series of losses but those losses can easily be recovered with one big win.

At the moment I am managing an account. Its a loss account where the owner already given up hope. It has a very small margin. Apart from that there are 3 more offers. All of it with the amount of over RM20,000.00. All these offers came from people who have actually watch me trade. I now know that account statement means very little. People wants to see how you trade and they want to see you are winning in front of them.

At the moment my trade system have reached it 3rd revision. I have 2 students at the moment but unfortunately for newbie, the amount of information they have to digest is too much. They easily get lost in it. The hardest part is not the amount of information but following orders. Any system in the world will have specific instruction. It seems that humans are very bad at following instructions. It is in our nature. No matter how simple my system is, there will always be times when people do not follow the rules and human like to blame others on their mistakes.

Enough of that. My last signal actually survive the spike of the rate cut. If anyone following that, you will be in profit or break even. The rest of the pair didnt survive the spike.

At the moment I am holding 2 post that is:
1. Short EURUSD @ 1.2830
2. Short AUDUSD @ 0.6670

One of my students followed me during the trade late friday. Hopefully we will see a trend continuation and the above trade will generate hundreds of pip if not thousand next week. Good luck to all of you. Keep on learning and someday you will be there.

October Nonfarm Payroll (Consensus Estimate: -200,000 to -250,000 Jobs)

The September jobs report was rather gloomy as U.S. employers cut payrolls at the steepest rate in five-and-a-half years. An unexpectedly high 159,000 jobs were slashed as employment thinned for a ninth straight month, strongly suggesting the economy may be in recession.

The unemployment rate was unchanged from August at 6.1 percent—the highest rate since the colossal 212,000 job decline in March 2003—as 121,000 people left the workforce.

Job cuts were across the board in September following revised losses of 73,000 jobs in August and 67,000 in July, showing an acceleration of decline in employment. Nearly 51,000 manufacturing jobs were lost last month on top of 56,000 cut in August, bringing the total number of consecutive months in which manufacturers slashed their payrolls to 27.

For week ending November 1, the Labor Department reported that the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 481,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 485,000. They also reported a four-week moving average of 477,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised average of 477,000.

Despite September's dismal numbers, total job losses remain historically low based on revisions to July and August data. The economy has lost nearly 750,000 jobs since employment peaked in December 2007, which is when many economists say a recession began. By contrast, however, payrolls fell an astounding 1.63 million during the period between March and November 2001 in the recession of that year, and continued falling for almost a full two more years, bringing the total amount of jobs lost to 2.7 million.

Given that the labor market typically lags the broader economic cycle, however, there is little doubt that the worse is yet to come as the economy's cyclical downturn continues.

Now that the presidential election is over, focus is sure to shift back to economic matters. All eyes will be on this week's NFP which—if consensus numbers are accurate—will almost certainly hasten the decline of U.S. equities and give a strong boost to U.S. treasuries, boding well for the greenback.

What is the NFP report?

Of all the world monthly economic reports, the monthly U.S. Non Farm Report (NFP) is the most highly anticipated and has the most dramatic impact on the currency market.

The report, which is released on the first Friday of each month and states the previous month's numbers, provides detailed industry data on employment, hours and earnings of workers on nonfarm payrolls. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state of the US market as well as the direction that the economy is heading.

What's more, the employment numbers provided by the report are used by the Fed to shape their interest rate policies. The health of the U.S. economy and interest rates translate to the strength or weakness of the U.S. dollar.

Risk with News Trading

As with all major economic releases, there could be significant price volatility with this announcement. Currency spreads will typically widen just before the release and will remain wide for a few minutes after. If the announcement is a shock to the consensus estimate, the price of the currency pair could gap significantly. For example, the price on the EURUSD trading at 1.2820 - 1.2822 just before release could gap up 60 pips to 1.2880 - 1.2882, without any available prices available between the price of 1.2820 and 1.2882. A Buy Stop placed before the announcement at 1.2830 would turn into a Market Order and would be filled at the prevailing price 1.2882. The same would be true with a Sell Stop.

Approximately four years ago we saw a gap of approximately 200 pips on the GBPUSD on a Non-Farm Payroll announcement. While this is an extreme example, it nevertheless is a possibility with trading during economic announcements. Consequently, plan on the spreads widening and, if you are trading with a Buy or a Sell Stop entry order, do not anticipate being filled at your entry price. You will be filled at the prevailing market price after the release, which could be significantly different from your desired price of your entry order.

Please be advised that due to the volatility of price fluctuations during the news, it is possible to see a delay in execution due to the additional verification necessary for each trade.

Article from IBFX. It seems news trading is not a good option if you do not know the news before it breaks out

FREE FOREX SIGNAL 6/11/2008

Signal 1
Long AUDUSD @ 0.6720 or better
SL 0.6680
TP on your own

Signal 2
Long GBPJPY @ 154.80 or better
SL 154.10
TP on your own

TRADE OF THE DAY - GBPUSD

This morning after looking at a bunch of chart, I have selected GBPUSD as trade of the day. GBP is weaker compare to other currencies. It would be much better to short it. At the moment hovering around 1.5960 and waiting for a confirmation to trade. Watch out for it.

THE RABBIT HOLE IS FAR INDEED

It seems that the rabbit hole is far indeed. It has moved too far that the trend has turned but now its time for a reverse trade. I am not going to give you a signal but fyi, GU, GJ and GCHF is going long now.

Update:
Volume has been very low for the whole day. A long signal presented itself but with no volume to support it, its not turning. With such a low volume, pairs just slide with the trend. No trade for me anymore. I have ate my stop loss today.

GOOD MORNING FOREX

As usual its Monday morning, but unlike before this morning its a fast mover. As usual forex class started at 9am. Who entered the morning class should be in profit by now. I personally got 100 pips off EJ. Now I am not trading anymore. Monday morning got a lot of work to be done. See you again at 3pm.

UPDATE: 3:56PM


As promised earlier. I am trading again at 3pm. This time the signal is not as favourable as in the morning. We have here is a short signal in an uptrend formation. Still it is tradeable but the level of risk is higher.

In the chart there are 2 symbol of hands pointing up and down.
Hand pointing up:
1. Time: 9am Malaysian time
2. Signal: MA cross and RSI>50
3. Trend: Uptrend formation. This is easy picking. I entered 5 minutes earlier and exit 100 pip later. I could have followed the trend but due to office work on monday morning I cannot monitor it. An early exit of 100 pip on Monday morning is not a bad trade.

Hand pointing down:
1. Time: 3pm Malaysian Time
2. Signal: MA cross and RSI=50
3. Trend: Uptrend formation. This is a hard trade. Short signal on an uptrend formation. This trade most probably be a short one. At the time of writing, SL has been moved +10 pips. So I am at a profitable position now. Let see how far the rabbit hole goes.

A NEW DAY A NEW DIRECTION

Yesterday was a good day. Seriously 700++ pips from GJ alone. Total of over 1500 pips in the bag.

Its a new day and a new direction has present itself. At moment there is nothing that I can do except to follow the direction. At the moment holding short on GJ, GU and EU. This is a short position that I have to monitor. This is because at the moment, all these pairs are in an uptrend formation.

Satu pesanan kepada murid-murid forex. Ingat waktu masuk kelas forex adalah jam 9 pagi. Apa saja yang dihidangkan pada jam 9 pagi setiap hari perlulah diterima dengan hati terbuka. Jgn sekali kali melawan market. Ini kerana market adalah berkuasa penuh dalam dunia forex. Ingat ye, mulai hari ini, perhatikan jam. Masuk jam 9 pagi, apa saja signal yang ada itulah dia permainannya utk hari tersebut.

Happy trading everyone. I trade during the day, and party at night. Is it ladies night tonight?

Update: 11:50 am
Closed all short position. Looks like its going nowhere. Now waiting for a new direction. Looks like there will be a new direction around 12 noon. Next direction is schedule at 3pm. If the direction of 3pm is a no show then the 12 noon signal will remain till tomorrow. At least that is how I understand it.

Ingat jgn trade membabi buta. Babi buta takkan boleh hidup lama. Jadi gunakan akal dan indicator yang ada dan tidak dilupakan volume dan masa. Jam 9pagi, 12tengahari dan 3petang. Renung renungkan
It seems that all pairs are changing direction. I personally dont know if this is a correction or the actual turn. Only time will tell but in the mean time, I am riding it. Long EU and AU at the moment and intending to hold it as far as the trend allows it. Happy trading everyone
I like to imagine I am in tune with the markets. My trading record may not agree with this minor flight of fancy, but nonetheless, it's much more rewarding to have a feeling of control.This morning, waking up much earlier than normal, I thought I'd take a look at the section of the Forex world that I follow... the AUDJPY.Aha, not only did we have a nice rally -- an echo of the DOW futures up by

Financial Aid Kicking In

As if things weren't confusing enough. Now we have various types of aid programs starting to impact the credit markets. No, the TARP program doesn't seem to be rolling just yet, but commercial paper facilities and other programs are now active.What does all this mean?To me, it means this. If the world collapses your money doesn't mean squat anyway. We'll all be living off of mushrooms grown

A PICTURES TELLS A THOUSAND WORDS

Just thought I would share a picture of my chart. I have decided to share it since I have to use 3 different settings on 3 different brokers to get it just right. Chances are you will find it hard to get exactly what you see here and what you see here dont tell you the whole story.Its forex anyway. You dont have to get the chart right, just get your head right.

White arrows shows how the price interact with the levels that Ive drawn. Its like magic actually. The wonders of Fibonacci.



Btw, volumes are extremely low at the moment. Do not enter.
At the moment all major pairs are dropping like flies sprayed with Ridsets. Take your position anytime you want. Its a sure winner. No point talking about something like that. Even a noob is making profit now

What I am going to tell you today is what most new comers dont understand. Its about forex market. What type of people can survive in it.

If you were to become a trader, you must be free of all biased, thought, hope and the likes of it. You dont even have to think. Just see where the market is heading and follow it. Dont trade because you think a pair is going to move somewhere. If you think, you are hoping for it to move according to your desire. You are biased towards it. You are going to be punished by it.

Forex doesnt care what you think. It moves for certain reason and a combination of factors. If you dont know the factors or too lazy to do research, all you can do is follow.

One more thing, most people that I know who trades using technical analysis dont take into account the amount of money moving in and out of a currency. Forex is a money market. People are using money to get more or to lose more money. There is nothing inside the forex market other than money. My advise is pay attention on the volumes traded. It is a fact that at times the volume is too low and those times are not a good time to enter the market.

AUDJPY Revisiting Lows

We're down below 63.00 in the AUDJPY market (as I type -- it may bounce).This appears to be a test of the 5+ year low for this pair... google charts. Are we ready for a bounce and the much awaited eventual upward trend?Obviously, I have no idea. However, you can be sure I'm sitting here watching the price action as I type.Right now, we've bounced a bit and are setting up for a possible "tweezer
Many beginning Forex traders wonder how the Forex brokers earn their money on the common traders, if they are not casinos. Understanding the basic principles of the brokers’ economics will help traders to distinguish real Forex brokers from the «bucket shop» scams and the ethical companies from the unethical. Here is the list of the most common ways for the Forex broker to earn money:
  • Currency pair spreads. The largest source of income for the Forex brokers, spread is the difference between the Bid and Ask rates. Broker can execute your orders without a spread or with a minimal spread, earning the money that you lose for the spread.
  • Leveraged spreads. Spreads alone would be too small to be a significant earning source for the brokers. So, brokers offer high leverage. Of course it’s a great tool for multiplying your profit (and also losses), but the spreads are also leveraged. With 1:100 leverage, broker earns 100 times more on spreads than it would without the leverage.
  • Overnight swap spreads. Brokers pay the overnight swaps to the trader if the difference between the currency’s interest rates is positive in the trader’s position and get paid from the trader’s account if that difference is negative. But those payments are not symmetrical and they are changed so that the Forex broker would always get the advantage. When someone is selling 1 lot of EUR/USD and another trader is buying the same amount of that currency pair, the latter is earning money on overnight swaps, but the first one is losing the amount that is enough to compensate the second one’s earnings and to «feed» the broker.
  • Payment processing commission. On-line Forex brokers don’t charge commission per trade (except Islamic accounts) and often advertise that as a feature. But some brokers charge payment processing fees — they are deducted only when you deposit or withdraw money and usually are quite small and fixed in currency units, not percentage points. Of course, such commissions are too small to be a part of the broker’s profit, but they are enough to compensate at least a part of the broker’s expenses.
  • Trading against the trader. The most despised and unethical way the Forex broker can make money is to trade against its customers. And that’s the most profitable way too. Avoid the brokers that earn when you lose. If the spreads are too low, the leverage is insignificant, the overnight swaps are fair and there are no commissions (for payment processing and trading) then the broker is certainly trading against you to make money.

Betting Against The AUDJPY

Well, with commodity prices spiraling down the toilet, it's a good time to be short of the AUDJPY.Look, put an SMA 20 on your AUDJPY chart. Load up the 1HR or 3HR chart. What direction is the simple moving average going?That's the trend.So, if the trend is your friend, what's the best direction to play?You guessed it in one... down!If you know how to draw a resistance line, or to put something

Trading The AUDJPY

Things are looking much more even-handed today than I've seen in a while.In fact, I was so impressed by the fact that the AUDJPY was following my charts again that I decided to do some trading today. While my account is very small, allowing me to be a bit risker with my trades, I did manage to scoop in about 3.5% of my account's NAV (Net Asset Value) by catching some nice movements.Why am I

SLOW MONDAY FOR FOREX

Last week was a good trade. It turns out AUD to be the most volatile and combine that with JPY we have a huge mover. At the moment I am still holding my post of AUDJPY from last week.

Its monday again and like usual its going to start of slow. At the moment the strongest currency is AUD and the weakest is JPY. The signal is to long AUDJPY. Entry point is the hard part. You have to figure it out yourself. Advise is to enter on the next pullback.

As for my basic system, I have found the perfect addition to it. It is exactly what I have in mind with a beatiful and simplified way of presenting it. It is so simple that I will not share the screenshot of it. Since anybody can trade with such a simple indication on the screen.

Forgive me if I am not willing to share since its my work of art for the last 2 years. I am still looking for open forex tournament. Anyone knows any tournament which I can test out my system?

Fundamental Market Conjecture

Be warned that for some reason I remain a perennial optimist.It strikes me that a lot of the current analysis is based on credit spreads and other esoteric measurements with an eye towards what current values would have implied during past periods.I'm not saying that this analysis of fundamentals is wrong, but consider this for a moment. Every time something surprising happens we end up looking
Keeping everything simple is a nice strategy in almost all types of activities. Sometimes, simplicity is the only way to become profitable in the Forex trading. Of course, not everyone likes to keep everything simple and not everyone should do that. But simplifying some basic aspects of the Forex trading will help you to avoid unnecessary problems and complications:
  1. Simple trading strategy can be as profitable as some really complex systems. By keeping your strategy simple you make it easier to follow and execute it. Adding complexity in the future can be your next level, but trading with a simple strategy is a very good way to start trading on Forex for real.
  2. Try to follow a simple money management system — trading with a fixed percentage of your account equity is easy and effective. Martingale system isn’t simple and leads to losses. So, with money management simple is almost always good.
  3. Fundamental analysis is a nice tool, but it’s better to avoid reacting on all fundamental news you hear. Keep it simple — select only really important releases or indicators and monitor them when you trade.
  4. One of the best ways to simplify your Forex trading is to hold the open positions for a fixed amount of time. This way, your positions are limited not only with the stop-loss and take-profit levels, but also with the time limit. I prefer limiting them to 30, 60, 360 minutes and 1 week periods, depending on the particular strategy.
  5. Try not to trade on currency pairs with the base currency different from the one, in which your account is founded. For example, if you trade USD/JPY, while your account is founded in USD, your profit or loss can’t be adequately measured, because it inversely depends on the USD/JPY rate.
  6. Look for a Forex broker with the fixed spreads, because trading with the variable spreads can’t be easy. You can’t rely on your strategy, especially if it’s a short-term strategy, if you don’t know the spreads values for sure.
Some traders adore simple approaches to the market, while others hate everything that’s easily understood by high-school graduate and prefer complexity. If you think that you are the one from the first group, then this list will probably help you. If you know some other ways to simplify Forex trading, please, leave a comment to this post.

CHARTS GIVES US A CLEARER PICTURE

At the moment EUR is stronger compared to GBP. EUR manage to hold its level while GBP has break a level and is hanging mid air. Beware of your GBP trade.

Most of people trading Forex that I know will trade based on pairs. They will trade EU, UCAD, UCHF etc. They trade based on individual strength of pair. Lets look at it from another direction.

When we trade EURUSD, we are actually comparing the strength of EUR and USD. Which ever is stronger we will be buying it in order to be profitable and vice versa. It is true that pair such as EURUSD will move based on fundamental and technical factor. What if we compare USD to 3 other currencies such as EUR, GBP and AUD. If you look at the chart closely you will see that sometimes these 3 pairs break the trend at once. Meaning they are syncronize.

The way I see it, if all 3 currencies of EUR, GBP and AUD becoming stronger compared to JPY at once. This is a sign of true weakness of the JPY and a huge move is going to happen. These moves can be seen once or twice a week only but it will give a huge return.

Let illustrate this for better understanding. This is just a simple example using MA. I am sure you can do better with more advance indicator. Below is chart of 3 pairs. GBPJPY, EURJPY and AUDJPY. At the yellow line, we have MA cross at the same time. See what happens afterwards. Basically this is the idea, I am using RSI to filter the noise and trade those 3 inline moves. Thats how I make money last night. I used MA, RSI and Heiken Ashi.



I would like to know what do you think of this system. Its a system because I am trading it again and again with success. Let me know what you think and your idea in order to filter it.

I kept on trying to implement new things in my trading style but the truth is my basic system gave me this result this morning. Looking for ways to improve or there is no room for improvement

LAST MINUTE TURN

Last night GU really did go up over 100 pip and then decided to go down. Luckily I have moved my stop loss and gain a little last night. I do not trade the move down since I am not infront of my pc.

Its forex anyway. You cannot have it all.

USD and JPY. The pairs are inline now. Soon there will be a big move.
Being the strongest of them all at the moment, GBPUSD is flying. This is the initial charge. Like many other breaks before, it will take a rest but not anytime soon. EURUSD is following close behind in term of strength. Maybe some of you didnt know, the EU actually broke the trend on the last spike before the break. AUDUSD is under par at the moment.

For JPY pair, mainly GBPJPY, EURJPY and AUDJPY they are still turning. Slowly moving up. For GJ this move is the 2nd try and it broke the resistance but there is a catch. JPY is not as weak as USD it seems. So shorting JPY may not be profitable as selling the USD. Eitherway, the resistance is being broken now, but in terms of strength, GBP is still under par. Anyone who wishes to try their luck on JPY pair can buy on the next pullback since its not that strong, the next pullback is coming very soon.

Btw, I only trade 2 currencies which are USD and JPY. In order to be profitable, I compare the strength of these 2 currencies with 3 other currencies GBP. USD and AUD. I monitor and trade only 6 pairs. They are GBPUSD, EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPJPY, EURJPY and AUDJPY.

Did you know that when all 3 USD pairs broke the trend at once, there will be a huge move going to happen. So the next time you see the 3 planets are inline, watch out for the devil. Diablo is coming.

ITS NOT THE HOLLY GRAIL OF FOREX BUT ITS WORKING FINE

I am writing this to get some opinion. Let say that you have develop a system. It may not be the holly grail but you manage for forecast turn and correction most of the time. People kept on asking you to share it. They want you to teach them the secret. What would you do?

Back to trading. GBPUSD downwards movements is declining rapidly in strength. It may turn around and fly away for real but as you understand, it takes time to turn. Just sit back and watch. If you are in profit, advisable to get out now. GBP is the 1st choice for long position. Be it GBPUSD or GBPJPY. It is the strongest of the all.
As predicted last week, the pairs moved upwards but now its going to do some correction. A huge one if you ask me.

So rileks, enjoy the ride. It is going up but it is no superman. I pity those people who are currently trying to push it up right now.

Market Rationality?

With some major changes happening on a global basis it's just possible that the forex markets will return to rationality.For example, the Yen crosses (the carry trades) have been taking off like a shot today. I know I've been mooing about a possible bottom here and there in the face of mass panic and extreme volatility as indicated by the VIX.Was that it?I hope so, but at the same time there is
Knowledge can make miracles happen, especially when you endeavor to succeed in the Forex market trading. And what is the second best source of knowledge (with the first best being your experience)? Books! Learning to trade is an easy, interesting and organized process, if you study the right books. Here is the list of the trading related books that will help you develop your skills and increase your confidence in the markets:
  1. School of Pipsology by BabyPips.com — it is the best Forex trading study manual as of now. And it’s also completely free. It’s written in a very easy language and offers a lot of explanations that are vitally needed by the beginning traders.
  2. Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefevre — this book is based on the biography of the legendary stock trader Jesse Livermore, who is often seen as an icon of the financial trading success. It’s a good half-fiction read that will provide with some interesting thoughts on trading.
  3. Emotion Free Trading by Larry Levin — Forex trading is a very stressful activity with a huge part of your success depending on your emotional control. This book will try to teach to control your good and bad emotions and trade based solely on your strategy rules.
  4. Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom by Van K. Tharp — the author of this book is a financial genius, whose developments in the money management of the financial trading can be applied in any market and will open your eyes on some aspects of the money management that are usually hidden from the beginning Forex traders.
  5. Position-sizing Effects on Trader Performance: An experimental analysis by John Ginyard — it’s a pretty long scientific paper that describes and analyzes the experiments on position-sizing effects. If you lack the hard evidence of the most common money management rules — read this and you’ll have it.
There many other interesting books that are worth reading if you are seriously trading on Forex or any other financial market. But these listed are the marvels of the trading literature, in my opinion. If you don’t have enough time to read them all, try to read at least several pages of them and, probably, you’ll find them to be more important than something else.

VIX Ahoy 2

Did I mention the VIX was high yesterday?I meant that it seemed to be getting a bit heated.Today the VIX is high.Tomorrow? You tell me.

ECB Liquidity Changes

I noticed something in a news item that I read today that I thought I'd share.While the big news is focused on the coordinated drop in central bank rates, the ECB did something else. They also eliminated their auction system. No, no, they haven't stopped providing liquidity, they are just doing it a different way than the standard auction process.What now?They are making unlimited amounts
So, we didn't have any type of bounce off the AUDJPY recovery support trend line. If you were watching the DOW or the NIKKEI you knew what was happening.At the same time we have a new high water mark in the VIX. Look at that thing. I mean, seriously?The only thing I can really point to that may be encouraging is that these higher VIX levels don't seem to be equating to lower lows in the
In my last post I’ve described the best advantages of the automated Forex trading. But, of course, I understand that the trading using the expert advisors isn’t always something good. Everything has its own pros and cons; so the automated trading has its own disadvantages and I’ll try to describe them in this article:
  1. No intuition to help your trading. Computers and programs simply don’t have anything similar to that mystical human feeling. While some traders don’t think that the intuition can be helpful in trading, others rely on it — such traders probably won’t be pleased with the automated trading.
  2. Smooth trade execution and uninterrupted run-time of the expert advisors is critical with many trading systems. Unfortunately, it’s something very hard to achieve running EA from your home or work PC. That means that you’d require some dedicated server to run your automated trading.
  3. Some types of strategies are simply impossible to implement into the real expert advisors. The chart pattern or wave analysis and fundamental analysis are extremely hard to code in the trading program. At the current level of the AI development these tasks are better performed by he live trader manually.
  4. The expert advisors should be made quality or otherwise their trading results will disappoint you. Unfortunately, not all expert advisors handle errors and other unexpected events correctly — sometimes this can lead to the huge losses. Moving your working EA from one broker to another can also be a problem, since broker servers differ and what works perfectly on one broker can stop working on another.
As you see, nothing is perfect in this world and, while being the extremely interesting and popular tool, automated Forex trading has its own problems. The wise decision here, in my opinion, would be using both types of trading to your advantage. The systems that can be easily implemented as the expert advisor and are too hard to be traded manually are better to be automated, while the simple systems that involve chart pattern and fundamental analysis are better left for the manual trading.
Previous signal of GBPUSD and USDCHF still holds. Eventhough GBPUSD decided to do one more move down, it has exhausted all its strength.

Trade of the week belongs to AUDUSD.
Believe it or not, the weakened AUD has grown strongest of them all. It will have huge move upward in weeks to come. My advise it to long AUDUSD at the best entry you can find. AUDUSD is expected to make a move down in the next few hours. Be ready with your entry. The last low of 0.6445 is your benchmark. Do find your entry around there.

Another strong turner.
GBPJPY is a strong turner. It is the 2nd strongest of them all. Take your long entry on the next low and hold for weeks to come. I forecast a move upward that will take at least 2 weeks and pip of thousands.

I do not give exact entry point coz both pair have overshot the weekly level. Take you entry based on last low and good luck to us all.

AUDJPY Technicals

I'm looking at my AUDJPY trend line.We've seen some good movement, recovering from the recent meltdown in short order... probably due to the coordinated rate changes.While I like the move I think we're getting to the top of our current trading channel. How we handle the reversal, assuming there is soon to be one, will set the tone of the next couple of days.If we bounce back up on or before the

Carry Trade Musings

Did you see the carry trades collapse today?Neither did I.In fact, things looked downright orderly. Nay, they looked rational. Is this a trick or have all the truly skittish abandon ship at this point?Be warned, I'm almost always too quick to look past current issues, discounting the ability of the current situation to cause additional convulsions before passing. However, with that said, I'm
As of writing, USDCHF has broken the trend. It should go down soon but now its ranging. Your entry should be somewhere around the last high. As for me I will be looking at 1.1460 level.

Good luck
It seems that GBPUSD has turned, but we still have time. I manage to snatch 80pip and get out. At the moment I am no longer holding any post. The signal as follows

Long GBPUSD @ 1.7440 or better
SL = 50pip. Try to find the best entry possible. It is in ranging phase now
TP = 100 pip or more or hold till I tell you to close

AUDUSD 0.7220

EURUSD 1.3475

Good luck is the brutal world of forex

Aussie, Aussie, Aussie

Oi, Oi, Oi.Yeah, okay, it's a big honking rate cut.Scuttlebutt has it that there might be some coordinated activity in the works, which this RBA rate cut is a sign of.I'm a bit skeptical of this, but you never know.However, with their rate now down "all the way" to 6.00 percent, a very high employment rate and a huge public works infrastructure project in the pipeline, funded by recent record
Well, it's been an interesting 24 hours on the Forex markets.I'd like to say I was on top of everything and made a boatload, but instead I have to admit this has been a lesson style experience. My stops were hammered mercilessly and then the markets dumped me unceremoniously on the pavement. So to speak.I guess the theme of the day is weakness in Europe. Another theme might be strength in
Trading with the expert advisors is seen by many (especially newbie) traders as the «holy grail» possibility. Such traders expect from each EA they find or buy the fast and risk-free profits. Of course, expert advisors are not the «holy grail» in Forex trading. Automated Forex trading is just another tool that can make the trader’s life a bit easier and sometimes even more profitable. Here is the list of the advantages of trading Forex with expert advisors:
  1. With expert advisors you can trade during the time you can’t trade manually. You can set up an expert advisor to trade for you when you are asleep, when you are away or when you are too busy to be involved in the market. Of course, you can hire someone else to trade for you, when you are away, but that’s rather ineffective decision.
  2. Strict following the trading system is another advantage of the automated Forex trading. If you have a strategy implemented in the expert advisor it will trade according to that strategy without any deviations. If you find it hard to follow your own system without modifying it constantly, try using an EA that would do all the work.
  3. Automated trading excludes any emotions form your market behavior. Computers and programs don’t have any emotions and won’t overtrade if they lose. If you are not very good at holding your emotions down, automated trading will definitely help you.
  4. Complicated strategies are not a problem for the expert advisors. For the live trader it’s not an easy task to monitor a dozen of indicators and compare each of them to the entry conditions, whereas expert advisors can do that easily and in no time at all.
  5. «Errare humanum est» said the Roman stoic; that means that despite your experience in Forex trading, you’ll make a lot of stupid mistakes through your trading career. Computers are not human, and if programmed without errors, expert advisors won’t make any errors during the trading.
  6. There are many things a live trader just can’t do — trading on multiple strategies, timeframes and currency pairs simultaneously is one of them. If you want to use your system on several currency pairs and timeframes — use expert advisor. If you want to test several systems at the same time — also use the expert advisor.
  7. The time of reaction, analysis and decision making can be critical in many Forex trading systems. Where manual trader just can’t do it fast enough, automated systems will work fine.
Perhaps, I’ve missed some important advantages here, but this list looks quite impressive to me. Of course, there are certain disadvantages in the automated Forex trading, but they will be a subject of my next post.

USD2000 IN 2 WEEKS

This was an article I posted last year. I took it down due to some agreement between me and Henry Carol. It seems that he forgot about it and forgot to fill his end of the bargain. Furthermore I notice his website claims profit of 1420pips on March this year. Kind of hard to believe if you are in my position. Keep on reading on the original article and maybe you can understand why is it hard to believe for me. Hopefully this article can give you some ideas on what is going on.

Lately I found myself having very little time to trade. On August 07 I only traded for 3 days due to my day job requires me to travel alot. So I look around the internet for an account manager. After looking around I've decided to let someone whom I once bought signal from to manage my account. Below are his details.

YM name = double88forex aka Henrycarol
Real Name = Leong Tian Su
Maybank A/C Number = 108011745015
Phone Number = +6017 888 0963
Website = http://www.profitpips.com/

He is an IB for Northfinance.com, meaning that anyone who open an account under him will entitle him for commision based on trading volume. The more you trade the more he earns.



After showing some impressive account statements, and promise for a target return of 50% a month I finally handed over the account to him. You can click on the picture to see the result of his trade. It is pretty impressive to see what he can do with USD2k in 2 weeks time.

As you can see he totally lost it in 2 weeks time. After he lost it, he just say that he is being reckless and asked me to fund the account again so that he can trade again. What you guys think I should do?

Money I have and money I can find, but the hardest thing to find is responsibility and friendship. You will be surprised at how easy it it a human can be bought by money. You guys might say USD2000 (RM7000) is a lot of money to lose but know this, I have lost more money to people whom I know as friends. These 5 years I have friends that borrow money from me for a total of RM12,000 and I have never seen the money back. Once they have got the money they will just avoid meeting me.

This is a sad story of how I lose my spending money. I hope that all of you out there can be cautious about who you give your money to be it online or offline. This is because once a friend borrowed money from you and he decided to split you will lose money and friendship. They just dont understand that all the power and money in the world counts for absolutely nothing when you are alone. Which is it that you want? More money or more friends?

Anyway back to trading, fasting month is a month of rest for me. I can spend more time in the office so I have time to trade. Last week I gain 10.99% of my account. Hopefully I can maintain that till end of the month. Happy trading everyone.

UPDATE:

I forgot to mention one thing. On top of the USD2000 there was also a setup fee of RM300. I totally forgot about it and that is why I didnt mention it on the above post.

After I posted this story, Henry Carol contact me again via YM with an offer. Take down this story and he will return me the setup fee of RM300. What you guys think?? Good offer or not?

Seeing Beyond The Bailout

Now that the US bailout package has been passed the question on everyone's mind is what happens next?Nobody knows. Conversely, everyone knows!Once the question of government action has been answered we know that the currency markets will move either up or down. Basically, the only time they are in near stasis is when speculators and investors need the next piece of information in order to
Its been a good week. Last week I posted signal for UJ and GU. I was hoping UJ to make the move but instead GU has done it. Over 1000 pip move. UJ is undecided due to the US economic situation and the 700b bailout plan.

At the moment I have closed all post. GU and GJ is making the strongest move of turning but it wont turn just yet. If you are used to these type of market you will understand that it will take time. So next week hopefully all goes well and a trade signal will come up.

Looking at the chart GJ is closer to breaking the trend compared to GU while AU is going flat now. The rest is slowing down except UJ. I dont know where its going.

Happy trading and see you next week. Hopefully :)

Close Your Eyes

Okay, so it doesn't look like anything at all is happening as of yet. Personally, I'm scalping the EURUSD on the 1 min chart this evening.It seems that nobody is willing to assume that the house will pass the bailout bill this time around. So, once again, we find ourselves in a state of financial stasis. In fact, given the rise that occurred on the original announcement, it may just be that we

Open Your Eyes

With revived expectations of a bailout package to be voted on this Wednesday evening, it's not hard to spot some double bottoms and double tops on various charts. Okay, maybe not perfect classic formations, but nonetheless, worthy of note.Obviously, there is no guarantee that the bailout package will be adopted. There is also no guarantee that these formations will complete and activate.However
Forex Autocash Robot is a new Expert Advisors. I am finding that a lot of experts are saying good words about it. Infact there is a website that is having a Forex Autocash Robot Review and an offer.The most talked about point is that this software has not lost a single trade in last 8 years 8 months. This is really amazing. I haven't seen or heard any software that has got 100% of winning trades
Every morning, upon waking, I open up my Forex trading platform and look for any major changes in the world of finance.This morning, for example, I see that carry trades have had a bounce overnight.So what, right?Well, wait a minute here. Bounces represent opportunity. If you look at the 1hr GBPJPY or AUDJPY you'll notice some serious signals. Sure, the CCI, Williams %R and stochastics all

Panic In The Streets

Okay, I'm not going to offer any groundbreaking news, we all know what happened to the so-called TARP program.After the House refused to pass the bill in a bi-partisan manner we saw market participants run for the hills to the tune of a 777 point drop on the DOW. It was quite the day.Did I forget to mention that the VIX closed at a new high? I even think I saw pieces of the sky fall!After all
Even the best Forex traders need to regularly refresh their knowledge and gain new information that is related to the currency trading. There are on-line Forex resources that provide information, news, books, communities, tools and other important advantages to the traders for free. Here is the list of the most useful Forex resources that are worth to be visited daily by every trader:

Bloomberg.com — business and currency news that create the fundamental background for the Forex market. I prefer to browse these news everyday before making any trading decisions.

Forexfactory.com — apart from the usual Forex tools, there are forums that are actually visited by many new and professional traders that share their experience with different trading systems, Forex brokers, expert advisors, etc.

Forex-tsd.com — a large Forex community focusing mainly on the technical tools for trading — such as expert advisors and indicators for various platforms (usually, MetaTrader 4).

Earnforex.com — a lot of useful and free information for all Forex traders, including books, brokers’ descriptions, reviews, articles and other goodies with the new updates almost everyday.

Talkgold Forex Forum — a very popular forum in the past, it still remains a place where many «old school» Forex traders share their knowledge and discuss Forex related issues.

Those are the resources that I visit everyday. If you know some other popular and useful sites for the Forex traders, you can mention them in the comments to this post.

The Less Known Evil of the Leverage

Trading with leverage is extremely popular among the Forex traders. High leverage is considered dangerous because of the risks associated with the fast moving money and poor money management tactics practiced by the majority of the traders. Besides the well known danger of multiplying your losses, there is another evil hiding behind the leverage, which can wipe your trading account easily.

High leverage is advertised by many brokers. Some traders believe that the higher their leverage is the faster they will become rich and the Forex brokers that offer ridiculously high leverage are even praised. But in fact, there is a very practical and mercantile reason for the Forex brokers to offer high leverage — higher earnings.

The higher is the leverage the more money is paid by the trader to the broker in the form of the rates spread. The value of the pip that trader wins, loses or pays as a spread depends on the leverage. With 1:100 leverage a 2 pips spread for the 1 standard lot of the USD based currency pair is worth $20. That’s not a big amount if you have $100,000 account, but if your total trading account is just $2,000? That’s 1% lost despite the fact if you win or lose this position. With 1:10 leverage that spread would worth you only $2. Without leverage the spread payment to your broker would be as low as 20 cents.

Remember that the leverage comes with a price, which is quite high and which is often overlooked by the traders. If you want to learn trading profitably on a real account, try to the leverage as low as possible. Switch to the higher leverage only if you really know what you are doing. Don’t try to become rich quick with the help of the leverage. It won’t allow you.

Shuffle Off To Buffalo

Is it just me or are the Yen based carry trades in stasis?I might be daydreaming, but it seems to me that the markets are just going to wait around until they find out what happens with the 700 billion bailout program.Have you looked at the 1 hour AUDJPY or GBPJPY? Unbelievable!
While the government prevaricates on what best to implement in terms of a housing crisis fix, the details of the TARP proposal, financial markets are in a holding pattern.Nobody wants to simply assume things will go forward as proposed. However, I'm sure nobody wants to stand on the wrong side of a 700 billion tsunami either.Jim Cramer of Mad Money had an interesting viewpoint on how to deal
Last signal of AudUsd failed. AU decided to turn the trend with a single move. Currently working on a short term system. Now I know its really hard, to trade short term but always trade with fixed amount of SL in order to control your loss.

Long UsdJpy @ 105.20 or better
SL = 50 pip
TP = will inform later.

EU and GU is currently in uptrend mode with EU being the strongest of the two. Correction is coming. Its better to short GU at 1.8622 or better. You have to calculate the risk yourself.

Back To Trading?

During the last few weeks I've been content to play it safe and collect small carry trade positions. However, the markets are starting to act normal, in that they are generally unpredictable but they do seem to adhere to technical indicators a reasonable amount of the time.It might be time to start trading again.Prior to the recent market meltdown I was having some success with my trading and
Apart from being potentially profitable, Forex market becomes more dangerous nowadays. There many scams in the Forex industry and they vary in types and scales. If you want to start trading Forex you should know a lot about such scams to avoid losing your hard-earned money. And if you are the experienced Forex trader you’ve probably already got hurt from some Forex scam and if not — you should also know about Forex scams to avoid them in the future.
  • Forex broker scam. It was very popular several years ago, but its popularity seems to fade now. Usually it’s just some set-up Forex broker site that promises the good trading conditions and offers some basic «bucket-shop» trading simulation to attract large customer base and run away with their money. Just do your research on a broker before depositing money and you’ll be safe from such scams.
  • Forex strategies selling. There are hundreds «successful» Forex trading strategies selling on the Internet. Many traders tend to believe that they can spend $300 on such a strategy and become rich with it. In reality the best thing that money can buy is education. Sold strategies are usually nothing but crap. Not only they won’t make you rich, they will probably make you lose your account margin.
  • Forex e-books selling. Overrated and hyped e-books with a lot of marketing and a little use (if at all) are the actual problem of many industries. Forex e-books selling for ridiculously high prices and promising to tell you «the best kept secrets of the millionaire traders» are nothing but wasted money. You’d better lose that money in Forex trading, trying to find your own strategy and getting some real practice.
  • Scam Forex managed accounts. Some people like the idea of Forex, but don’t like to trade on this market, they prefer to invest in it. That’s where managed accounts come to play. It’s a good idea to have some company or a private trade to trade for you and earn a share of profit. But unfortunately there also scam players here. They will just take your money and disappear. Some scam managers will probably even pretend that they are really trading and will show you some profit, hoping that you’ll deposit more. Don’t fall for such scams, thoroughly research your manager or better invest in some reputable managing company.

FREE FOREX SIGNAL 19 SEPTEMBER 2008

AudUsd has made a double top level 3 (thats what I called it). signal should be as follows

Short AudUsd @ 0.8074 or better
SL = 50 pips
TP = will inform later (Its a moving target)
I'm not certain that euphoria is any wiser than panic, but I do know that the Forex world has changed.The Fed, Congress and the Senate were meeting earlier this evening and are putting together what is touted to be a comprehensive plan to solve the ongoing financial crisis. Basically, by creating an organization to buy and then auction off troubled assets, the fear and uncertainty in the markets
Now that the trading week is over I thought I'd write about a few things that came to mind over the last couple of days.Current SituationEveryone is expecting the Fed to come along and put a multi-hundred billion dollar package together with the help of congress. Obviously, this is relieving a lot of the unprecedented pressure on both stocks and various Forex markets. The only fly in the
Knowing your trader’s personality is very important if you want to maintain a healthy, pleasant and, most importantly, profitable lifestyle while working on Forex. People are different and what’s good for one can be bad for other. Some trading methods and techniques will work for the certain kind of traders, but they will fail when you try to use them.

The most notable difference between various trading styles is the frequency of trading. Traders that like action and often «want to do something» perform better when they open several positions per day. Those who don’t like the chaos of the daily trading and like to think a lot before doing something will enjoy the profit from a scarcer trading. There are 4 distinct types of the trader’s personalities by the trading frequency:
  1. Position trader — mostly fundamental analysis driven positions that are opened very rarely — only few per month, often just about 10-20 positions per year. This style doesn’t require constant market monitoring and is recommended for the busy people.
  2. Swing trader — trades more often than the position trader, holding his orders open for the days and weeks. Targets and stops are lower than those with the position trading, but there are many trades per year. This is not a day trading, but it’s neither a long-term trading.
  3. Day trader — one of the most popular types of traders. They trade every day, opening several positions and holding them for a few hours to a day. This style requires a lot of market monitoring and will probably fit only full-time Forex traders.
  4. Scalper — this is the most risky and dangerous trading style. Scalping involves holding a position open just for a few seconds or minutes to gain the small profit from each position. There are dozens of trades each day with the scalping. Almost all brokers prohibit scalping. Another problem with scalping is that the major part of the scalper’s profit is eaten by the broker’s spread.
There some other parameters that can be different for various traders, but the main trading style is the basic difference and the trader that is good with the position trading shouldn’t go for the day trading to remain successful. Try to find out your style as soon as possible and stick with it.

BASELINE TRADER: INTRODUCTION

There are many ways to make money in Forex, not to forget there are a million ways to lose money in Forex market. Its an open market design for open competition. Only the smartest will survive.

A little something about Baseline Trader. I have spend more than 2 years looking at charts. I am looking at charts through technical aspect. Meaning, there must be some logical explanation why forex behave the way it is. Looking thru the naked eyes, forex market is unpredictable, wild and hungry. Its like a tsunami wave, destroying everything in its path but then there are wave surfers who make a living out of surfing waves. How is that possible?

Baseline Trader will be based on Fibonacci numbers. Believe or not, Fibonacci is a wonderful mathematical calculation. In the chart there will be short term and long term trade, fib levels, entry and exit, sl level all bunch up in a single chart. Sounds too much but believe me, once you know how to read it, one glance and you know where you are going to be. It is design to be simple yet precise. If you read the chart right, you will always be with the trend and you will always know your exit.

Below is a chart of GJ trade which I took. I like to share with you the chart since willcare is giving signal in the opposite direction. My entry and exit point is based on Fib levels. In the chart the level is not shown since Marketiva doesnt have the indicator available. My full chart is on MT4. Btw, I missed my entry so I will not trade GJ for now. My entry is exactly on the black line.

With the temporary loan facility made available to AIG by the Fed it seems that the currency markets are getting back a bit more appetite for risk.The Yen has been dropping and carry trade pairs have floated erratically to more respectable levels. The real question is how the US markets will react tomorrow. I'm expecting the equity markets, the DOW, to do well but I don't know if the carry

Drawdowns and Money Management

No matter how good your Forex trading strategy is, you will lose some of your positions. There is no such thing as a 100% sure win in trading, so eventually you’ll encounter some loss. This is where the money management kicks in and helps you to limit your drawdowns in order to save your trading account from the complete wipe-out.

The problem with the drawdowns is that if you lose 10% of your account you need to recover 11% of what remains to return to the breakeven point. Losing 20% will require 25% gain over the remaining balance to recover. As you see, if you trade with the percentage risks, recovering from losses is much harder if you lose more. Trading with a little risk ratio is a good idea to prevent such problem from occurring. If you trade long enough you’ll encounter the streaks of losing trades — with 10 losing positions in a row and 10% risk ratio you’ll lose more than 60% of your initial balance. But if you trade risking only 3% of your current balance you’ll end up with 26.3% total loss. You don’t need to be a genius to see that it’s a lot easier to recover after the 26% loss than from 60% loss.

Of course, trading with small amounts of your account doesn’t look very promising, because you decrease your potential profit. But believe me, if you somehow lose 70% of your account — and that’s not a hard thing to do if you risk a big part of your capital with each trade — you’ll have to more than double your leftovers to reach the breakeven point. Remember, that all professional Forex traders (and even professional poker players) always risk only a small fraction of their capital with each trade.
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